patrick.net

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

They were lined up before polls opened today. Got there 4 minutes early and there were already 70 people in front of me. Had to wait a bit but wasn’t bad. Turnout is likely to be huge if this is any evidence.

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

Last time I tried that, they opened late. As in voting time started and the place wasn't even open. I think it took them at least 25 minutes for them to show up and stuff.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Lines will be non-existent if you get there early.

Last time I tried that, they opened late. As in voting time started and the place wasn't even open. I think it took them at least 25 minutes for them to show up and stuff.

Aren't you in Baltimore? I'm in a town of 2,200 people and there was about 40 people at 5:55am. Cities are run like shit hence why I won't live in one again. Opening late is of concern for you. As in your vote being counted.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/euphoria-wednesday-november-6-2024

Trump defeated the Polls. For the last three weeks, the polls claimed Kamala Harris enjoyed a slight 1-3% lead over Trump, calling it “essentially neck and neck.” A couple of outlier polls from “respected” pollsters early this week even purported to show Kamala surging ahead.

The polls are a dead letter.

In another shift that may be a forever change, in contrast to the official polls, the layman’s betting markets correctly predicted the outcome of the presidential race. The polls were, once again, badly wrong. The polls are pure propaganda.

Transparent betting markets offer disintermediated, direct access to voter’s pre-election preferences. The polls will never be the same after this.

For another delicious thought, imagine how many ecstatic conservatives will be counting the cash they won from disappointed democrats. The top pro-Trump better on Polymarket put up $29 million. Ouch.

Fwiw Rasmussen had it right yet again as they did in 2016(and they weren’t far off in 2020)

What is true is the hoi poloi that didn’t already realize how corrupt the msm is now are fully aware. The msm lied incessantly running up to this election. Lied about who trump is, what he’s don’t and most of all lied about what he would do. No longer. Black(males), brown, white…..all are fully alert. And if they weren’t, last night they saw all the ugly leftist media faces in full ugliness all night long.

Norah O’’Donnell on CBS almost cried a few times and basically looked like she had taken an unwanted surprise back door entry all night long.

Former Fox ancho Chris Wallace on CNN is the biggest pile of turds ever…an absolute elitist who couldn’t relate to a blu collar worker if his life depended on it.

Fuck all of them.

Money on the line is a far better indicator of truth than the CIA/corporate media polls.

After looking at all the numbers for 2020 and 2024 Democrates agree that Trump won in 2020. Then they will say Trump can't win a third term from 2024 election.

original link

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump

Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?

Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

We should remember that Rasmussen was the most honest of them.

Patrick says

https://notthebee.com/article/harris-campaign-aide-admits-they-never-had-internal-polling-showing-them-with-a-lead-on-trump

Harris aide admits campaign never had internal polling that showed a lead over Trump ... so why were all the professional polls different?

Clearly all the public polls were adding the 2020 margin of cheating to Kamala's results, because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

The polls were bullshit?

Shocked!

Patrick says

because they assumed that the same level of cheating would happen.

The last several years I've been thinking it's more to help COVER the cheating. "Nobody was cheating - this goes along with the polls!"

.

Biden's 2024 deficit was $1.8 trillion and about 8% more than the 2023 deficit.

I suspect Trump is looking to keep the 2025 deficit below $1.7 trillion to reverse this trend of increasing deficits.

He'll tout this before the 2026 midterm election.

.

https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2025/04/06/new-poll-shows-trump-support-increasing-after-tariff-announcement-n4938642

According to a DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners survey of over 1,000 registered voters, Trump's popularity has actually increased four percentage points, from 49% to 53%. It's up 13 points since March 7 among those 18-29.

Astonishingly, Trump's approval jumped six points among Democrats and independents as well.

While the poll was conducted from March 31 to April 3, you'd have to live in a cave not to have been exposed to the rabid opposition to Trump's tariff plan. Even if the specifics weren't known, the American people knew the general outline of Trump's plans.

What Americans knew about the president's tariff plans, a plurality approved of them.

I superfluously antagonize the members of my current band by occasionally uttering "MAGA baby" when I deem it appropriate. True story, and that makes certain members hate me even more, but the drummer is cool with it.

https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/poly-something-wednesday-july-16

Polymarket played a headline-grabbing role in the 2024 election, particularly during the Democratic primary crisis. As legacy media and major pollsters insisted Vice President Kamala Harris remained the frontrunner, Polymarket users weren’t buying it. Literally. Long before official forecasts began to shift, the platform’s odds reflected a steep and persistent collapse in confidence in Harris’s chances, especially in key swing states.

The tipping point came in late summer, when Polymarket’s crowd-priced contracts gave Harris less than a 10% chance of securing the election— even as CNN still had her leading the race. Media dismissed it as internet trolling or crypto noise. But in the end, the prediction proved eerily accurate: Harris was out, and the DNC was scrambled.

In reality, Polymarket’s crowdsourced “hive mind” outperformed the pundits and pollsters. It didn’t just reflect public sentiment— it correctly forecast it. That made it political and thus, intensely controversial. ...

In 2024, after it became painfully obvious that Polymarket bettors weren’t buying the official pro-Harris narrative, Biden’s weaponized DOJ joined the fray. Of course. FBI agents raided CEO Shayne Coplan’s New York apartment, seizing his devices in a grossly political shot across the bow. Despite no evidence of harm, fraud, or user complaints, the Biden administration treated the site as a national security threat —election interference!— because it allowed ordinary people to bet against elite narratives.

The investigation has dragged on for nearly a year, casting a chill over decentralized prediction markets.

Yesterday, two major Polymarket probes —one civil (CFTC), one criminal (DOJ)— were both unceremoniously dropped. No charges. No settlement. Just poof. This came after FBI agents spent nearly a year sniffing around the site’s U.S. userbase and “unregistered prediction markets.”




... This could turn the grotesque polling industry inside out. Polymarket and its kin don’t just compete with the polling industry; they threaten to obsolete it. While polls rely on outdated phone surveys, small samples, statistical manipulation, and partisan question framing, betting markets are superior in every way. They tap the collective intelligence of thousands of people with real skin in the game in real time. They don’t ask what anyone says will happen— they watch what we’re willing to bet our money on.

Crowds produce vastly better results than polls. In 2024, the crowd accurately predicted Kamala Harris’s downfall long before the pollsters ever admitted she was even in trouble.

If they make this category, I’ll bet it’s the end of the long-running polling scam. Goodbye, pollster manipulators. We won’t miss you.