patrick.net

I'll bite: +10%
I'm expecting about +8% for the next few decades, which is fine with me but maybe not for all readers.
My personal results may be worse, because my shares of AAPL are about 23% of my total; I don't expect AAPL to grow very much in the future.
I'm also maybe totally wrong and just posting nonsense.

The stock market is TOO controlled and corrupted by oligarchs. Crypto is the future, not just Bitcoin. The crypto market today is like the stock market of old days. Plenty of opportunities where you don't have to risk so much if you just pay attention and do your homework.

Clambo and I are in the same boat. Expecting +10% (7% usual gain + 3% inflation). I'm mega-overweight in AAPL, so I'm likely to underperform for 2025. AAPL is already down some 14% from it's all-time high in December.

annual inflation based on PCE is around 2.5%

so interest rates have gone down, and the 10 Year Treasury should be no more than 1.5% greater than the annual inflation rate

and 30 year mortgage rate should be 1.5% greater than the 10 year Treasury rate

and yes you can easily get a 1 year CD at around a 4.5% rate

clambo says

because my shares of AAPL are about 23% of my total

I have Apple as well but only about 1000 shares bought 2005 or so when it was cheap. It may not increase much more like you said, but it does pay a dollar a year in dividends. I have Apple as one of about 50 stocks in a dividend paying portfolio. I like to buy and hold long term stocks that at the time of purchase pay a dividend of about 6% or more. For example, I just bought Ford when it dipped down below $10 since it pays a dividend of 60 cents per year. I also just bought Playtika when it dipped down to $6.85 since it pays 40 cents per year. I do not plan to ever sell these stocks. Odd thing in the tax law is that when stocks are passed on during inheritance the basis resets, so the kid gets the stocks with no capital gains tax. If they were in an IRA the kid would have to sell the stocks within 10 years.

For speculative stocks, I look at stocks like Solid Power SLDP which is dirt cheap and recently tracks like a sine wave. I plan to buy if it falls again to $1 and sell when it rises back up to $2.

AD says

you can easily get a 1 year CD at around a 4.5% rate

True, and what is strange is that the same places that sell a one-year CD for 4.5% have much lower rates for longer terms, such as an 18-month CD at 3.2%. It used to be the longer the term the higher the rate.

HeadSet says

AD says

you can easily get a 1 year CD at around a 4.5% rate

True, and what is strange is that the same places that sell a one-year CD for 4.5% have much lower rates for longer terms, such as an 18-month CD at 3.2%. It used to be the longer the term the higher the rate.

yeah, 1 year Treasury around 4.1% now and yield curve is un-inverting now

https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/

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