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Misc says

Any nominations on who will be first to put in capital controls???

I have no clue about this realm. All I know is I have a major rail line going through my town and mile long trains come through every 30 minutes. Lumber yard where they do panelized construction and there's lumber there easily for 500 units. They wouldn't keep that on hand if the economy showed signs of tanking and rail would be a train every 90 minutes and shorter.

I don't know what that means for capital controls, but the US economy is not weak compared to others. China is probably fucked and it really has little to do with the United States. They blew up and didn't have good economic and demographic policies. There probably will be a famine coming to China.

I'm not there so it's hard to trust the news, but I think China is in for a rough road the next few years. I wouldn't want to be Xi. Americans can go without the cheap Chinese garbage IMO. If it stopped showing up on Amazon I don't think we'd care and most intelligent people know Temu is pure trash.

We need to stay the course and not give in to China. The economy is in shambles and if it gets bad enough we might see something that will make Tiananmen Square look like child’s play.

Eventually, most nations will enact capital controls. Even the US.

China has long done so. That is why the yuan is not any serious contender for WRC.

More USD is held and circulates outside the US. So the US will be imposing capital controls on money flooding in.

SharkyP says

We need to stay the course and not give in to China. The economy is in shambles and if it gets bad enough we might see something that will make Tiananmen Square look like child’s play.

I think that day is coming faster than predicted by some. China is fuck. China really isn't allies with anyone of consequence that could legitimately help them.

Besides the demographics, language is a massive barrier as well. Outsiders can't speak or write the language. Then if you have a translator you have to assume the translation is not a lie or being done by a spy. Countries go there with a bag of money and say make this for X dollars or whatever currency and we'll buy it back. I think that game is ending and it might be a quick ending.

SharkyP says

We need to stay the course and not give in to China. The economy is in shambles and if it gets bad enough we might see something that will make Tiananmen Square look like child’s play.

^^^^^^^
This.

China is a house of cards, the base of which is massive exports to keep the rabble employed, even if it's virtual slave labor - at least they have money to eat.

China is doing everything it can to keep the orders flowing, and the proof is that they're recycling the money paid for their goods back into the debt instruments of the purchasing countries.

Eventually, if we stay the course, China won't have enough to keep the fentanyl factories open. BANG! Drug problem solved.

The only losers in this game of chicken are the Chicoms and the US oligarchs who built their fortunes on eviscerating the manufacturing base and the middle class of this country. Everyone else wins.

stereotomy says

China is a house of cards, the base of which is massive exports

Just saw a good quote somewhere: Both the countries that are utterly dependent on exports (China) and the ones utterly dependent on imports (US) are in great danger.

Patrick says

stereotomy says

China is a house of cards, the base of which is massive exports

Just saw a good quote somewhere: Both the countries that are utterly dependent on exports (China) and the ones utterly dependent on imports (US) are in great danger.

The difference is, the US can stop pissing away money on globohomo bullshit and print up trillions to rebuild its manufacturing base. We already have record U6/U8 unemployment, China can't tolerate even one third of what we have.

In the meantime, inflation will decimate any of the fake debt-based industries that depend on chicom slave labor for the products they sell. The struggling mom and pop farms and businesses will soldier on because 1) they're used to it, and can rely on under the table trade now that the extra 80,000 IRS agents have been deep-sixed, and 2) they are privately owned, so they can only be screwed by the banks as opposed to banks + Wall St.

stereotomy says

China can't tolerate even one third of what we have.

You may like the video at this thread, interviews with real Chinese saying it's bad:
https://patrick.net/post/1384483/2025-05-07-fuck-china-thread

Of course COCsuckers are gonna make the claim that if China sneezes, we'll get double viral-bacterial pneumonia, when it's really the opposite.

AmericanKulak says

You may like the video at this thread, interviews with real Chinese saying it's bad:
https://patrick.net/post/1384483/2025-05-07-fuck-china-thread

That's what inspired my post. There's two generations of chinee that have never known hard times - they're in for a wake up call to stand beside Tank Man in the next riots.

stereotomy says

That's what inspired my post. There's two generations of chinee that have never known hard times - they're in for a wake up call to stand beside Tank Man in the next riots.

Right now I'm watching a Chinese made video where a factory is so desperate, they're dumping all the M and S clothes they were supposed to sell on Shein or Temu, in front of the factory for 2, 3, 5 RMB. Pants, shorts, shirts. Or about 35c

For comparison, the lowest minimum wage in China is about 16 RMB, and that's like in Shikiang province out with the horses in Central Asia with the Uighurs. It's over 20 in the Coastal Cities.

China is an elder driven, not youth driven civilization. Almost every family has at least one parent or grandparent who remembers the Great Leap Backward or the Red Guards, and most people over 40 have at least some memory before the 90s-00s Free Trade boom. The vast majority of the Chinese public distinctly remembers personally themselves living in a one-room farmhouse with no electric or running water, or sharing a water tap in a 2-3 story walkup in the courtyard with 8 other families. Not just 80 year olds, but 60 year olds and a ton of 30-40 year olds. Still now Tens of Millions of Chinese get gobsmacked going to cities to work for the first time.

The Chinese GenZ thank their parents profusely for their sacrifice to go to college or tech school and feel deeply obligated to provide for them.

China is SAVINGS driven mentality-economy.

Which is why a Bush "GO SHOPPING!" command from the CCP will be celebrated - then promptly ignored.

Instead they will discuss pickling more vegetables and finding out which seller has cheaper rice. Sorry, no new phone for Youngest Daughter. Cancelled for good of family.

A man not only must find a wife and have children, but he is responsible for his parents and grandparents as well. Because of one-China for so long, often there aren't enough working age adults IN a family to begin with. Chinese women don't expect to work full time after getting married and having a child or two. They are more reasonable and more family oriented, but they see it as "Failing" and don't like it.

Chinese save like nuts, but huge aspects of the CCP economy are locked out from having to pay dividends to shareholders. From Defense to Oil. The only thing they can really put money into is real estate. They actually can't buy the S&P500 and HODL; the Chinese stock market has been flat for years anyway and is mostly consumer driven businesses, the exact companies likely to have increasing weak valuations when times are tough. And when times get bad, they will all be under pressure to sell, sell, sell.

The Shanghai Stock exchange is about the same value is was in... you're not gonna believe this shit, and I looked in several places I thought it was a mistake... Summer of 2009.

And it's been flat since just before Trump's first term, about a decade now