patrick.net

Iran now has that railway for transporting oil to China, but if they did shut down Hormuz, Iran would have a lot more enemies than Israel to contend with. I don't count USA as enemy of Iran, just the regime and and its activities.

Ceffer says

Iran now has that railway for transporting oil to China, but if they did shut down Hormuz, Iran would have a lot more enemies than Israel to contend with. I don't count USA as enemy of Iran, just the regime and and its activities.

That railway is nothing compared to Tankers, and that railroad goes through a lot of countries. And railways are easy as hell to bomb and sabotage... especially through those lonely Central Asian stretches.

Sure would be terrible if a truss of a railway bridge happened to collapse on some isolated hill pass. Sure would be Shame, Mr. Xi.

AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper says

Ceffer says

Iran now has that railway for transporting oil to China, but if they did shut down Hormuz, Iran would have a lot more enemies than Israel to contend with. I don't count USA as enemy of Iran, just the regime and and its activities.

That railway is nothing compared to Tankers, and that railroad goes through a lot of countries. And railways are easy as hell to bomb and sabotage... especially through those lonely Central Asian stretches.

Sure would be terrible if a truss of a railway bridge happened to collapse on some isolated hill pass. Sure would be Shame, Mr. Xi.

Yup.

@Grok, how fucked is Libtarded California if the Hormuz spice does not flow?

Closing shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would significantly impact California's economy and residents due to its reliance on global oil markets and trade. The Strait handles about 20% of global oil supply and a third of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, making it a critical chokepoint for energy markets.

Here's how a closure could affect California:

Higher Energy Prices: California imports roughly 60% of its crude oil, with a significant portion historically coming from Persian Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which rely on the Strait for exports A closure would likely cause global oil prices to spike, potentially exceeding $100-$150 per barrel or even reaching $350 in extreme scenarios. This would translate to higher gasoline and diesel prices in California, where gas prices are already among the highest in the U.S. For example, a post on X noted that filling a truck in California currently costs $130, and a closure could push prices much higher.

Inflation and Consumer Costs: Rising fuel prices would increase transportation and logistics costs, driving up prices for goods and services across California. Sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and retail, which depend on affordable fuel, would face higher operating costs, squeezing consumers already dealing with high living expenses. Analysts estimate that a prolonged closure could add up to 1% to non-energy inflation in energy-dependent regions.

Supply Chain Disruptions: California’s ports, such as Los Angeles and Long Beach, handle a massive share of U.S. imports, including electronics, raw materials, and consumer goods from Asia. While most of these goods don’t pass through the Strait, higher global shipping costs due to oil price surges and potential rerouting could delay deliveries and increase prices. A closure would also disrupt LNG supplies, affecting energy-intensive industries.

Impact on Oil Infrastructure: California’s environmental policies have limited domestic oil production and pipeline restarts, increasing reliance on imported oil, some of which transits the Strait. X posts claim about half of California’s oil supply is linked to the Strait, though exact figures are hard to verify. A closure could strain local refineries, potentially leading to fuel shortages or rationing if alternative supplies (e.g., from Canada or Latin America) can’t be secured quickly.

Economic Ripple Effects: California’s economy, the largest in the U.S., is sensitive to global shocks. A global recession triggered by a Strait closure, as warned by analysts, could reduce demand for California’s tech, entertainment, and agricultural exports. Job losses in trade-dependent sectors and reduced consumer spending could follow.

Geopolitical and Military Costs: A closure might draw the U.S. into military action to reopen the Strait, given the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. California, home to major military bases, could see increased activity or economic strain from federal defense spending, indirectly affecting state resources.

Mitigating Factors: The U.S., including California, is less dependent on Gulf oil than in past decades due to increased domestic production and imports from Canada. Alternative pipelines, like Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, could partially offset disruptions, though capacity is limited (4.2 million barrels/day vs. 20 million through the Strait). However, global price shocks would still hit California hard.

Likelihood and Context: Iran, which controls the Strait’s northern shore, has threatened closures but never fully blocked it, even during the Iran-Iraq War. Analysts argue Iran is unlikely to close the Strait due to economic self-harm (it relies on the Strait for its own oil exports to China) and the risk of U.S. military retaliation. Still, even short-term disruptions or heightened tensions could spike prices, as seen in 2019 when Brent crude rose 20% amid fears of conflict.

In summary, a Strait of Hormuz closure would hit California with higher fuel prices, inflation, supply chain issues, and economic slowdown, disproportionately affecting lower-income residents and energy-intensive industries. While the U.S.’s energy independence softens the blow, California’s import reliance and high costs make it vulnerable. The scenario remains unlikely but plausible given ongoing Israel-Iran tensions.

MolotovCocktail says

But if it gets shut down, California will see $15/gallon gas real soon. Because CA would rather be oil dependent on ragheads who treat women like shit than buy any from 'Those Evil Fracker Fuckers in Texas'. Hawaii will be fucked, too.

Agree with the gas price for 6-12 months. CA would be better off with Canadian and ND and SD fracking oil and building or modifying refineries out there to handle that type of crude. Easier to cross the Rockies through Montana as far as grades to climb or go down.

They know the routes I don't, but ultimately gas tax seems to be the biggest problem. Also prices on oil would come down as more short commuters would go electric. From my understanding ICE vehicles are basically paying for EV's. The party ends at some point.

Patrick says

https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/videos-israel-devastating-incoming

Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

I think there is going to be a little Iran and China railroad that's destined for some international tinkering.

Patrick says

Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

It seems a pipeline would have been more efficient.

I imagine that it will essentially be Iranian oil for Chinese goods.

Patrick says

Patrick says

https://michaelyon.substack.com/p/videos-israel-devastating-incoming

Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

Book of Boba Fett had an episode that paid homage to Lawrence of Arabia's train scene:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CsN1vAulIK4

HeadSet says

Patrick says

Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

It seems a pipeline would have been more efficient.

Yes. Trains are good for coal vs oil transport.

Why doesn't Saudi Arabia ship it out of the Red Sea instead? I mean it's not like they can't build the infrastructure to do that. It's also not like a potential Strait of Hormuz closure hasn't been as issue for quite some time. I also wonder how hard it would be for the UAE to build infrastructure past the strait as well (or a canal).

zzyzzx says

Why doesn't Saudi Arabia ship it out of the Red Sea instead? I mean it's not like they can't build the infrastructure to do that. It's also not like a potential Strait of Hormuz closure hasn't been as issue for quite some time. I also wonder how hard it would be for the UAE to build infrastructure past the strait as well (or a canal).

They can and do.

But that does nothing for the exports of UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, etc. And I don't think they have built up enough there for LNG export, if any. LNG is as big as deal as oil, these days.

Not to mention the Houthis are still shooting shit up there, even though that isn't in the western news much.

zzyzzx says

Why doesn't Saudi Arabia ship it out of the Red Sea instead? I mean it's not like they can't build the infrastructure to do that. It's also not like a potential Strait of Hormuz closure hasn't been as issue for quite some time. I also wonder how hard it would be for the UAE to build infrastructure past the strait as well (or a canal).

Iran is in a no win situation. Higher oil prices only help the Saudis and the US as sanctions don't allow them to even sell oil places. So it makes no sense. Blockade yourself? Ships can't get insurance to go through even Iranian ones without massive cost. You live on arid land so you rely on imports. It's kind of funny on the surface.

They don't have a nuke and ZERO chance they get one from another country. The iron was hot and Trump made a strike. Close the Straits. We can sit back in the Arabian sea and bomb the shit out of their navy. No civilian death and we can claim to be helping the Iranian people by reopening it.

When you look at all the factors, Trump has Iran backed into a corner. Russia has its own war. China can't do anything as fuel oil prices for them could triple. I don't like war, but if you're going to do it, do it right. Trump knew they'd try to close the Straits. Russia won't give them a nuke or Pakistan. Iran should just come to the table.

>Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

Also, doesn't that rail line go over a mountain range? If so that's got to make it that much more difficult to use.

zzyzzx says

>Important note — China and Iran recently opened direct rail traffic. This bypasses all naval chokepoints.

Also, doesn't that rail line go over a mountain range? If so that's got to make it that much more difficult to use.

2,000,000 million?

zzyzzx says

Also, doesn't that rail line go over a mountain range? If so that's got to make it that much more difficult to use.

And sabotage, in areas isolated and difficult to bring repair materials, equipment, and crews.