patrick.net

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https://www.axios.com/2025/06/27/ice-trump-tariffs-home-sales

article states the housing market is in the dumps

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WookieMan says

That generally means it's a shit hole.

Wookie, tell me about your home state of Illinois :-/

Illinois' Disastrous Demographics: Fewer Youth, A Drop In Working-Age Residents And A Jump In Elderly

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/illinois-disastrous-demographics-fewer-youth-drop-working-age-residents-and-jump-elderly

Here’s what the latest demographic data shows for Illinois:

Nation’s worst drop in number of residents age 18 and under. Illinois had 184,000 fewer residents aged 18 and under in 2024 vs 2020. That’s a 6% drop, the biggest percentage loss in the country.

To be sure, much of Illinois’ decline can be attributed to the national trend of declining births. In all, just 11 states increased their youth population over the same period. But having the worst decline shows Illinois is in special trouble. Every one of Illinois’ neighbors had a far smaller decline than we did.

Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.

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I can't believe how cheap apartments have become vs. COVID era in Florida. Hearing similar in Tennessee

Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.

The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.

Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny

AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper says

I can't believe how cheap apartments have become vs. COVID era in Florida. Hearing similar in Tennessee

Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.

The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.

Yeah RD Offutt Farms owns Hathaway Luxury Apartments in Panama City Beach Florida. They stopped construction last year on the 226 unit development after they broke ground.

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AmericanKulakMaximumTrumper says

I can't believe how cheap apartments have become vs. COVID era in Florida. Hearing similar in Tennessee

Free Month(s), $1400 for 2 beds they wanted $1900+ for.

The overbuilding and the completion bond worked together and speculative builders and investors getting their ass handed to them.

Mass/self deportations having the desired effect?

PeopleUnited says

Mass/self deportations having the desired effect?

Part of it. The other major factors I think is back to in-person and flat out overexpansion.

AD says

Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny

Has nothing to do with real estate. People either buy or sell. People are buying in IL. Can't unsee what I see daily.

And yes there are shitty trailer park condos everywhere. How many condos have you been in? No online. Physically.

WookieMan says

AD says

Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny

Has nothing to do with real estate. People either buy or sell. People are buying in IL. Can't unsee what I see daily.

And yes there are shitty trailer park condos everywhere. How many condos have you been in? No online. Physically.

I have lived in condos in Cocoa Beach, South Florida and Panama City Beach. I've lived in about 7 condo HOAs in Florida.

Demographics has a lot to do with commerce like real estate.

If Illinois is dying off which is a demographics matter then there is less new housing starts for example.

I have no idea why you claim demographic trends have nothing to do with real estate. Have another drink and keep posting like this.

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AD says

Professor Larry Sabato says demographics is destiny

Good to see South Carolina on the list. Personal observation - lots of young families with multiple kids in the areas I’ve been. Best license plate -
“Procreate"

AD says

I have lived in condos in Cocoa Beach, South Florida and Panama City Beach. I've lived in about 7 condo HOAs in Florida.

Not a knock. Sold over 300 condos at least. Common spaces, maintenance, etc. I get to see the entire building during inspections and showings. I'd walk past units (pre-legal) that smelled like a bong. Bitching and yelling at 9am. Drunks in the hallway carrying beer and booze.

This isn't zillow telling what a building is like. I saw it. I went through it. You seem like a guy that doesn't want to live in a shitty spot. Problem is there are a TON of shit spots. You just won't go to them which is fine. I had to for work and not purchase.

I think maybe 2-3 times that someone could argue I was fudging on this site. I own it. I don't lie about my real estate experience. Fact is most on this thread go on links and photos a realtor or hired. You think they're going to make it look bad and not get a commission? You have to physically see it. And I'm talking 300 SALES, not showings and walk throughs.

AD says

Florida, in contrast, had its age 18 and under population grow by 5.5%, or nearly 250,000, over the same period.

Yeah. But they have too many retirees.

The number of home sellers has returned to levels not seen since March 2020, and the number of buyers is at the lowest level in their limited dataset, which goes back to 2013.

NAHB Housing Market Index
above 50 means favorable conditions for housing builders

WookieMan says

AD says
I have lived in condos in Cocoa Beach, South Florida and Panama City Beach. I've lived in about 7 condo HOAs in Florida.

Not a knock. Sold over 300 condos at least. Common spaces, maintenance, etc. I get to see the entire building during inspections and showings. I'd walk past units (pre-legal) that smelled like a bong. Bitching and yelling at 9am. Drunks in the hallway carrying beer and booze.

This isn't zillow telling what a building is like. I saw it. I went through it. You seem like a guy that doesn't want to live in a shitty spot. Problem is there are a TON of shit spots. You just won't go to them which is fine. I had to for work and not purchase.

I also look around like go to the condos at Bay Point like Harbour Villas, and on the beach as well as cross the bridge to go to Panama City and I don't see slums or ghetto condos.

The HOA boards won't allow it in Florida.

How many of those 300 condos you sold were in Illinois ?

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AD says

The number of home sellers has returned to levels not seen since March 2020, and the number of buyers is at the lowest level in their limited dataset, which goes back to 2013.

NAHB Housing Market Index
above 50 means favorable conditions for housing builders

Its 34 now but not as dismal as back in 2010
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Or the early 90s, which was a decent R/E slump in most markets.

AD says

How many of those 300 condos you sold were in Illinois ?

Ahem, he's an expert on everything. Like Aviation, Aerospace, Manufacturing, and day-to-day living in California.

https://x.com/EricDLombardi/status/1937161155849449641

Patrick says

https://x.com/EricDLombardi/status/1937161155849449641

I don't have a problem with some areas being "too expensive" as long as there are places where it is not too expensive. This includes work/life balance issues. You can have your expensive areas as long as others can live also.

There needs to be at least some houses which do not cost 10x the median income for that area.

GNL says

I don't have a problem with some areas being "too expensive" as long as there are places where it is not too expensive. This includes work/life balance issues. You can have your expensive areas as long as others can live also.

The problem occurs when people want the high-paying jobs of silicon valley but don't want to commute 50 miles so they can live in a less expensive location. (And even at 50 miles away, anything in California is fairly expensive.) There are, indeed plenty of inexpensive places in the country; it's just that the job prospects are likely dismal. Maybe telecommuting is the answer.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Ahem, he's an expert on everything.

Never claimed to be an expert besides real estate, which I am. I know AD's market from searching for properties with my dad. I've spent over 2 years of my adult life in the panhandle. Sure most of it fun, but we looked at properties. My dad was a cheapskate. I've looked at about 100 condos in that area. There's 100% ghetto condos in the panhandle. I'm not saying ALL condos. You guys sometimes need to read the context of the comment. Especially in this thread.

There's a high element of white trash in that region and some ghetto black. I like the beaches and water, but it's not a place I could live year round regardless of hurricanes and humidity as that doesn't bother me.

Not an expert but yes I've worked in manufacturing about 22 years ago or so. If you left O'hare airport in that time I built the signs over the roadway leaving the airport. I also made these myself.


And yes, I study aviation. Besides getting airtime I have an FAA license currently.

At no point have I claimed anything with regards to Aerospace. So more bullshitting.

California is the 5th largest "country" by GDP. You don't think I know some people off this forum? From the same country I live in. I get plenty of non-patnet feedback from others and have visited plenty. Beautiful state but run like shit. Unless you have $10M burning a hole in your pocket, CA is a trap. You know it too. Never claimed to be an expert on CA, but everything I hear is 90% negative and 10% weather.

WookieMan says

Unless you have $10M burning a hole in your pocket, CA is a trap...Never claimed to be an expert on CA..

SunnyvaleCA says

GNL says

I don't have a problem with some areas being "too expensive" as long as there are places where it is not too expensive. This includes work/life balance issues. You can have your expensive areas as long as others can live also.

The problem occurs when people want the high-paying jobs of silicon valley but don't want to commute 50 miles so they can live in a less expensive location. (And even at 50 miles away, anything in California is fairly expensive.) There are, indeed plenty of inexpensive places in the country; it's just that the job prospects are likely dismal. Maybe telecommuting is the answer.

I think you've expanded on what I said. Yes.

SunnyvaleCA says

There are, indeed plenty of inexpensive places in the country; it's just that the job prospects are likely dismal. Maybe telecommuting is the answer.

Yes, I think it is a good answer. People with high-paying telecommute jobs can live in cheap places, though that drives up housing costs for other people in the cheap places.

And the housing in Silicon Valley should fall as more and more people work remotely.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/30/exit-from-the-lock-in-effect-slowed-in-q1-as-home-sales-deteriorated-further-and-supply-spiked/

Patrick says

SunnyvaleCA says

There are, indeed plenty of inexpensive places in the country; it's just that the job prospects are likely dismal. Maybe telecommuting is the answer.

Yes, I think it is a good answer. People with high-paying telecommute jobs can live in cheap places, though that drives up housing costs for other people in the cheap places.

And the housing in Silicon Valley should fall as more and more people work remotely.

The problem is those people that live in the high cost places will not easily/readily be willing to sell at a lower price …. Even if the market tanks so long as they have their source of income….

Patrick says

And the housing in Silicon Valley should fall as more and more people work remotely.

Not if the Indians of SV keep buying houses with their parents' cash. 250 million Indians have the same income/net worth as middle class Anericans do. Mostly from corruption. They send their kids here and give them cash to outbuy the local Americans. That's SV for you.

I remember one coworker complaining to me that his family's house in Jammu was burgled. Stole the gold his father kept secured there. His father was a judge. Thieves knew exactly where to go. One of the household staff probably sold them out. He said he was counting on that gold for a $100k down payment for a house in Foster City.

Deport the fuckers or deny H1Bs the right to buy real estate will fix this problem. Not gonna happen.

WookieMan says

Problem is there are a TON of shit spots

Yes maybe in Democrat shithole and demographic time bomb Illinois, but not in Florida as far as condos which are well regulated HOAs.

The problem is your exageration got too extreme this time to try to say the Florida panhandle (which is best place on Earth) has a lot of shit condos, or the rest of Florida does.

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ForcedTQ says

The problem is those people that live in the high cost places will not easily/readily be willing to sell at a lower price …. Even if the market tanks so long as they have their source of income….

Yeah ride it out, and the reason why they live there is the job that provides the high source of income.

If I am making $300,000 a year as a senior engineer in Silicon Valley, and I am $100,000 underwater for my townhome, I would not give a shit because the money is good.

My only fear is I get laid off and cant' find an equivalent replacement job. But I'm going to try to keep going as long as I can at $300,000 a year, and save at least $40,000 per year.

I've been reading that the computer science/software engineering industry is getting decimated now.

Patrick says

SunnyvaleCA says

There are, indeed plenty of inexpensive places in the country; it's just that the job prospects are likely dismal. Maybe telecommuting is the answer.

Yes, I think it is a good answer. People with high-paying telecommute jobs can live in cheap places, though that drives up housing costs for other people in the cheap places.

And the housing in Silicon Valley should fall as more and more people work remotely.

But how is this playing out as Amazon (not Silicon Valley) has called people back to the office, and I read Apple is requiring at least 3 days per week in the office.

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WookieMan says

There's a high element of white trash in that region and some ghetto black. I like the beaches and water, but it's not a place I could live year round regardless of hurricanes and humidity as that doesn't bother me.

yeah, keep talking smack about my home Florida panhandle

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MolotovCocktail says

Patrick says

And the housing in Silicon Valley should fall as more and more people work remotely.

Not if the Indians of SV keep buying houses with their parents' cash. 250 million Indians have the same income/net worth as middle class Anericans do. Mostly from corruption. They send their kids here and give them cash to outbuy the local Americans. That's SV for you.

I remember one coworker complaining to me that his family's house in Jammu was burgled. Stole the gold his father kept secured there. His father was a judge. Thieves knew exactly where to go. One of the household staff probably sold them out. He said he was counting on that gold for a $100k down payment for a house in Foster City.

Deport the fuckers or deny H1Bs the right to buy real estate will fix this problem. Not gonna happen.

Exactly the reason why NO foreign national should be allowed to own land in the USA!

ForcedTQ says

The problem is those people that live in the high cost places will not easily/readily be willing to sell at a lower price …

It's like musical chairs. Some will sell now to take the gain and move to a lower cost area, while the later sellers will get trapped without buyers.

AD says

$300,000 a year as a senior engineer in Silicon Valley

FYI, I was a Staff Engineer in SV before going into mgmt. Never made $300k/yr. And wages have fallen since then.

AD says

The problem is your exageration got too extreme this time to try to say the Florida panhandle (which is best place on Earth) has a lot of shit condos, or the rest of Florida does.

ForcedTQ says

Exactly the reason why NO foreign national should be allowed to own land in the USA!

Then rents would skyrocket, too!

But yeah, I agree American soil should be for Americans.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

$300,000 a year as a senior engineer in Silicon Valley

FYI, I was a Staff Engineer in SV before going into mgmt. Never made $300k/yr. And wages have fallen since then.

I never made that much in salary, but people lie/boast significantly about their income. Also, if you include stock grants, then I was consistently making well beyond that. Note, however, that you lose 50% in all combined payroll taxes. (27% AMT, 10% California, SS, Obmacare tax, and some other odds and ends.)

AD says

yeah, keep talking smack about my home Florida panhandle

Do you just hug the coast dude and not leave? North of 10 is extreme white trash and ghetto. My parents owned 4 homes and land there. I'm not talking out my ass. No one with money lives north of 10. They go south 25-35 minutes to their service job and drive back to their trailer.

You can talk shit about IL all day. I've never gotten defensive. You likely haven't been to IL besides a flight layover. I've spent YEARS in the panhandle. You might know PCB better, I'll concede that, but I know the Panhandle well from Pensacola to St. George Beach. You're getting a bit butt hurt about what I know to be fact from experience in the area. PCB local might be fine. North it's not. This isn't me talking about 4-5 months I've spent in CA. 2-3 years of my adult life in your area. I know it. I worked with my dad on real estate down there.

I'm not claiming to be an expert, but I know more than anyone besides you about the panhandle. I can promise that. Don't want to dox myself but I could show you all the properties my family and friends have owned. It over a dozen in the Panhandle.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

The problem is your exageration got too extreme this time to try to say the Florida panhandle (which is best place on Earth) has a lot of shit condos, or the rest of Florida does.

At no point did I ever say it was a bad place. You know there's white trash and some ghetto blacks. That's not debatable. I can't unsee what I've seen. I'm not trashing FL, it's what I've personally seen. Have you even been to IL? You keep throwing that back. And what part, Chicago. Land wise that's not even 5% of the state.

Stupid GIF's and images are retarded FYI. Have an actual thought or point what ever your user name is today. That wasn't directed at you AD.